PhD Theses

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Browsing PhD Theses by Author "Bagambilana, Francis Rweyemamu"

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    Assessment of farmers’ perceptions of climate change and attendant adaptation in semi-arid lowlands of Mwanga district, Tanzania
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2019) Bagambilana, Francis Rweyemamu
    Through climate modeling, it was projected that climate change and variability will interact with non-climate factors to exacerbate vulnerability of agricultural systems particularly in semi-arid zones. Indeed, the study area of semi-arid lowlands in Mwanga District was typified with some indicators of climate change and variability including frequent crop failure, famine, relief supplies, water shortages, and land degradation. Furthermore, farmers’ adaptation to climate change and variability was conceptualised as a two-step process encompassing farmer’s perception that climate was changing and farmer’s behavioural response to climate changes. Consequently, this study was undertaken in order to understand farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall changes, effects of such changes on agriculture, and the main determinants of farmers’ adoption of coping/adaptation strategies and farmers’ adaptive capacities. Additionally, the socio-cognitive model of private proactive adaptation to climate change as pegged on the protection motivation theory informed a research methodology. Specifically, the cross-sectional sequential explanatory mixed methods research design was used to collect and analyze quantitative data (time series of temperature, rainfall, sizes of crop harvested areas, amounts of crop production coupled with BIT index), and categorical data (based on a questionnaire administered to randomly selected representative sample of 328 households from Kileo, Kirya, and Kigonigoni Villages that had modern irrigation schemes). Additionally, the research design was used to collect and analyse qualitative data (from 30 and 16 purposively selected participants for focus group discussions and individual in-depth interviews, respectively) and field observations. The findings revealed that the majority of respondents to household questionnaire and participants during focus group discussions/in-depth interviews perceived increasing temperatures/decreasing rainfall and increasing climate risks and non-climate risks on agricultural systems. Crosstabs revealed that respondents’ perceptions were statistically significantly influenced by, inter alia, villages and type of farming systems (α set at .05). Additionally, the findings revealed statistically significant increase of mean minimum temperature at Same Meteorological station (Kendall’s tau rτ (55) = .290, p = .002) and statistically significant decrease of rainfall at the same station (Kendall’s tau rτ (46) = -.231, p = .012) and at NyumbayaMungu Meteorological station (Kendall’s tau rτ (39) = -.223, p = .024). Thus, it was concluded that the human-induced climate change occurred in the study area. Considering statistically significant correlations between rainfall at both stations and the Niño 3.4 index and Dipole mode index, it was concluded that modes of climate variability significantly influenced rainfall in the study area. Besides, variability of paleo-precipitation in the study area during the last 25 ka was revealed by analysis of BIT index for Lake Challa area. However, there were no statistically significant relationships between rainfall and crop production. Hence, it was concluded that agriculture was influenced by a multiplicity of factors. Basing of findings from binary and proportional odds logistic regressions, it was concluded that market-related factors rather than cognitive ones largely influenced farmers’ adoption of coping/adaptation strategies and their perceived adaptive capacities. Thus, this study recommends strengthening of institutional capacities to sustainably manage water resources and to conduct studies to assess the efficacy of coping/adaptation strategies.