Resolution or containment? : an evaluation of direct negotiation and settlement facilitation in the Zanzibar conflict

Zanzibar has been a conflict-torn society since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in 1992. The conflict has been characterized by sporadic acts of violence and a continuing political impasse in danger of escalating to an unmanageable level. Attempts were made by an external settlement facilitator (the Commonwealth) and the disputants, the ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and the main opposition party the Civic United Front (CUF), to resolve the conflict; nonetheless, they did not bring a lasting solution. This study sought to explain why these approaches failed to bring a lasting solution to the conflict. The study used a case study research design, to evaluate the two attempts employed to resolve the Zanzibar conflict. Findings show that the Commonwealth‟s initiative failed to help the conflicting parties to resolve the conflict inasmuch as it crafted settlement terms instead of empowering the parties to find a solution for their own problem. Also the Commonwealth failed to transform the hostile relationship of the parties, and it even lacked the staying power to guarantee the implementation of the democratic reforms it proposed. The direct negotiation approach, on the other hand, was constrained by the zero-sum nature of the issues under dispute, power superiority of one of the conflicting parties, complexity of the dispute, and the low intensity of the dispute. The study concludes that given the nature and context of the Zanzibar conflict direct negotiations and third-party settlement facilitation are unlikely to resolve the conflict. As the conflicting parties can no longer engage in a constructive dialogue, the study recommends that there should be an external intervention to directly mediate in the conflict, or the Union government should allow CUF and CCM Zanzibar to explore their historical grievances and become a more neutral and objective guarantor of the agreement. Further research is also recommended on the actors, their interests, and the strategies they use to see whether or not these issues are stumbling blocks to the peace initiatives.