The causal relationship between government expenditure and government revenue in Tanzania, 1966-2010
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Date
2012
Authors
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Publisher
University of Dar es Salaam
Abstract
This study examines the causal relationship between government expenditure and revenues in Tanzania from 1966 to 2010 for the long run and short run through integrating the Error Correction Model (ECM) into the traditional Granger causality test. The study uses multivariate models, where real GDP and dummies used as the control variables and captures unusual circumstances in the economy respectively. In addition, Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) and Forecast Error Variance Decompositions (FEVDs) have discussed the nexus between government expenditure and revenue. The empirical result shows that there is unidirectional causality running from government expenditure to government revenue in the long run, hence support spend-tax hypothesis. This implies that a budget deficit in Tanzania mainly has been driven by rapid growth in government expenditure. Thus reducing government expenditure should be an optimal solution to curb the budget deficit phenomenon. In addition, the study reveals no causal relationship between government expenditure and government revenue in short run, thus supports the institutional separation hypothesis. Therefore, for the government to reduce the budget deficit in the short run, it should cut public expenditure in unproductive sectors and at the same time ensuring effective utilization of available resources.
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Available in print form
Keywords
Government expenditure, Expenditures, Public, Revenue, Tanzania
Citation
Joseph, C (2012) The causal relationship between government expenditure and government revenue in Tanzania, 1966-2010, Master dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam. (Available at http://41.86.178.3/internetserver3.1.2/detail.aspx)