Youth unemployment behavior in Tanzania: a markov chain process approach

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University of Dar es Salaam
Every year the number of youth ready to join the labour force is increasing. There is large rural to urban migration of the youth. In Tanzania, those aged between 15 and 24 years account for about 20% of the total population. The study used data collected for School-to-Work transition survey (2013). Research on employment transition behaviour in Eastern and Central Africa has not studied in details. However the use of Markov chain analysis has been employed in developed countries in the Americas. In this study, Chi-square tests are performed to determine association between employment status and socio-demographic factors. Finally Markov chain Analysis is done to determine the steady state transition matrix. The results indicate that age, sex, family economic situation, area of residence and education are all statistically associated with employment status. The steady state transition probability matrix was attained after 19 years from 2012, with the following results that about 2/3 of the youth will be unemployed by 2032. Therefore, the government should improve the environment for the informal sector as well as invest in post -secondary vocational training which will empower the youths to access gainful employment by introducing entrepreneurial skills in schools and colleges.
Available in print form, East Africana Collection, Dr. Wilbert Chagula Library, Class mark (THS EAF HD6276.T34L88)
Youth, Employment, Statistical Method
Luvanda, H.B.(2014) Youth unemployment behavior in Tanzania: a markov chain process approach, Master dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam