Determinants of fertility in Tanzania: a cross-sectional economic analysis

The primary purpose of this study is to examine the determinants of fertility in Tanzania. The study uses data from the 2004-5 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey to examine fertility levels at national, rural and urban levels. The approach applied is the standard Poisson model which is more appropriate in studying fertility since the dependent variable is a count variable. The empirical results of the pooled sample indicate reduction effects of child survival rate, religion, age at first marriage, age at first birth, work and wealth on fertility levels per woman. Whereas, ideal numbers of children, age of a woman and age of a woman’s partner have positive bearing on fertility levels. Unexpected results are shown by education and contraceptive use and knowledge. Education level of a woman’s partner is found to have a more reduction effect than that of a woman. Contraceptive use and knowledge are found to have no significant reduction effects; in most cases they are found to have positive effects on fertility levels. These are puzzling developments because the opposite have been found and proved by other studies, this therefore warrants further study. Some differences are found in comparing the rural and urban analysis results. This study clearly witnesses the impact of spatial differences on fertility levels. In general, this study recommends that; policies that raise the age at first marriage, raise the age at first birth, improve child survival rate, encourage couples to have fewer children, encourage practice of religion, encourage women’s empowerment through education and participation in the labor market, may help to reduce fertility rate which can subsequently aid the attainment of sustainable economic growth and development.