Stock market volatility during political elections: the case of Nairobi and Zimbabwe stock exchange

Thumbnail Image
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
University of Dar es Salaam
This study analyses the impact of general elections on stock market volatility of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE) and the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) for the period of 1991-2008. The main reason for choosing these two countries and this period is the occurrence of political uncertainties around elections. The main hypotheses that were tested are: stock market volatility. The GARCH model was used to model was used to model the results because it measures volatility in financial data more effectively than other Linear Time Series Models; since it explains a number of features (including, Leptokurtosis, volatility clustering and leverage effects) of financial data that Linear Time Series Models are enable explain. Empirical results show that volatility was persistent in both markets. However the election period had different contribution to both markets. While pre election and postelection period caused significant impact on stock market volatility in the NSE, it was only postelection period that caused significant effect on the ZSE. These findings do have several public policy implications. They show that political elections outcomes do matter in determining assets returns in emerging markets; Governments in SSA ought to minimize political and economic uncertainties surrounding elections.
Available in print form, East Africana Collection, Dr. Wilbert Chagula Library, Class Mark (THS EAF HG4551.Z55M3)
Political elections, Market volatility, Stock exchange, Nairobi and Zimbabwe
Mayengo, P. K (2009) Stock market volatility during political elections: the case of Nairobi and Zimbabwe stock exchange, Master dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam