Shagega, Frank P2021-02-132021-02-132018Shagega, Frank P (2018) Assesment of estimated potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology ngerengere river catchment, Tanzania ,Masters dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaamhttp://41.86.178.5:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/14793Available in print form, EAF collection, Dr. Wilbert Chagula Library (THS EAF QC903.2.T34S52)Global climate change has substantial impacts on local and regional hydrological regime, but general understanding of how hydrological regime is affected by climate change at catchment scale is lacking. In this study, the estimated potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of Ngerengere River catchment were assessed. The rainfall runoff model, HBV model for the catchment was calibrated and validate for impact assessment. Future climate for 2050s (2040 - 2069) and 2080s (2070 - 2099) were downscaled using a statistical weather generator (LARS- WG) estimated from outputs of the global circulation model (HadCM3) under A2 emission scenario. The HBV model was calibrated and validated using the observed stream flow data at Mgude gauge station for the baseline period (1971-2000), The Nash efficiency (NSE) of 0.7 and 0.6 was as attained during calibration and validation respectively. Downscaling results revealed that LARS-WG performed very well in fitting in future rainfall and temperature data series. The results it indicated an increase in minimum and maximum temperature of around 0.2 -2.0°C in the 2050s and around 2.7 - 4.-1°C in the 2080s. The lowest increase in temperature: hues predicted to be in October and November and the highest increase predicted to occur in May, June and July. Future rainfall is predicted to decrease by 12-37 % April, May, June and July, while rainfall in the remaining months. Predicted to 58%. The impacts assessment on the stream low of the Ngerengere catchment revealed a decline in the Wall annual stream low by21 % in 2050s whereas increase of up to 58% in mean annual stream loss is predicted during the 2080s.enClimatic changeHydrogeological modelingResearchNgerengere river catchmentTanzaniaThesis