Morkovian manpower planning models applied to the academic staff of the University of Dar es Salaam

The structure of the academic staff of the University of Dar-es-Salaam is hierarchical. The teaching staff is divided into six grades: tutorial assistants, assistant lecturers, lecturers, senior lecturers, associate professors and professors. In this study, we apply Markovian Manpower Planning Models to study the movement of employees into, within and out of the system. In the first part, we apply a model to forecast the grade-sizes up to ten years from the 1978/79 period, for the Faculty of Arts and Social Science and the Faculty of Science of the University. We also study related aspects like the behaviour of cohorts through the system, limiting distributions of grade sizes and the sensitivity of the structures to variations in parameters. In the second part of the study, we attempt to study how to control certain required structures. We attempt to find recruitment vectors which can systematically change the present grade structure to a desired structure. We then attempt to obtain recruitment vectors which can keep (maintain) this desired structure at the desired level for the necessary period of time. Because of the limitations of time, funds and facilities, this part of the study was not completed; it will be completed in a later study. The general approach has been to develop a mathematical model and then apply it to each of the two systems. Some related information which might help the reader to appreciate the models has been collected in the appendices.