Risk management in natural gas transmission pipelines: the case of TPDC Mtwara-Dar es Salaam Pipeline

Natural gas pipeline is crucial infrastructure for transmission and distribution of gas. Unlike other centralized natural gas infrastructures, pipeline covers a broad area and encounters various risks on its path to destination. This study assessed the various risks associated with TPDC natural gas pipeline. It focused on all identified risks that face the pipeline as well as the risk that the pipeline poses to the surrounding. The study included areas of Mtwara, Lindi, Pwani and Dar es Salaam regions where the pipeline passes. Risks were identified and TPDC experts were involved in providing opinion on the likelihood of occurrence and severity of risks using likert scale rating. A sample of 40 experts of different level of education, experience and job positions was involved. Questionnaire was the technique applied to collect data. Qualitative risk analysis was used to analyze the risks found in the study. Analysis of Data was done using SPSS v20, Bowtie Xp and Microsoft Excel software. The study identified 26 risks. Some of high risks are floods/heavy rainfall, procurement delay, excavation works, external corrosion, emergency repair response readiness, and lack of operational experience. Out of 26 identified risks the one with likely highest chance of occurrence is floods/heavy rainfall. The risks that may cause the highest damage are earthquake and sabotage, according to TPDC experts, some of the risks prevention measures includes public awareness campaign, warning signage, pigging, utilization of corrosion inhibitors and control and monitoring of pipeline and natural gas specifications such as dew point and pipeline pressure. The researcher also suggested introduction of pipeline protection law as risk prevention.