Development of a comprehensive water balance model for lake Victoria.

Attempts to Model the anomalous hydrological behaviour of Lake Victoria have been made with varying degrees of success in this century. In this study an attempt is made using a previously developed monthly and annual Models to investigate further the link between rainfall and the lake levels. The main aim has been to extend the previous studies from 1925 to the end of the century. The results confirm that the main cause of the variations in the observed lake levels is through natural variations in rainfall and resulting tributary inflows which would allow projections of possible future levels to be made by analysis of rainfall series. An Idealised interpretation of these variations is presented which illustrates the long response time of this large lake and which is used to speculate on the likely future behaviour of the lake.