Estimation of present and likely future demand for fuelwood and Charcoal in Machakos district, Kenya.

This study on wood fuel consumption in the marginal Machakos District, Kenya, determined present (1977) per capita and total consumption and made forecasts for the years 1980, 1990 and 2000. The present resources have also been analysed and possible future woodfuel volume estimated with a view to checking whether some imbalances exist. The analysis gives an average annual household per capita consumption of 1.30m3. The rural household sector consumes 1.29m3 while 1.79m3 is consumed by the urban counterpart. The district average (household and non-household) per capita consumption is 1.5m3, and the gross total woodfuel consumed in all sectors in 1977 is estimated at 1.36 million m3. Forecasting future consumption has been based on the expected future population growth rates. However, due to possible substitution by other fuels, the consumption will grow at a slower pace, and is estimated to be 1.47, 1.88 and 2.26 million m3 in 1980, 1990 and 2000 respectively. These totals do not include a possible supply to the Cement Factory, estimated at 1.47 and 3.03 million m3 in 1990 and 2000 respectively. Available woodfuel standing volumes are estimated at 11.65 million m3 with an annual increment of 0.24 million m3 (1977). However, at the current consumption rates all the stock could be depleted by 1986. Already signs of what is to come are manifesting themselves through woodfuel imbalance has been caused by wanton cutting of trees in the past and has resulted in acute woodfuel scarcity, soil erosion an frequent crop failures in recent years. To avert this situation it is recommended that serious afforestation be embarked on without further delay. The Forest Department should give a lead by stepping up its annual planting programme from 200 to 1,200 ha, 1,000 of which should be fuelwood plantations. The question of gazetting more land should be given serious consideration. However, the area of greatest potential is in the rural Afforestation Extension Scheme, where 1.13 million ha of savanna are not yet fully utilized and a large fraction of this is in danger of erosion. Each of the 1,000 villages in the district could be helped to establish 100 ha of woodfuel plantations by year 2000, Such a programme would provide woodfuel and other forest products such as construction and fencing posts. It would also provide employment in the poor rural areas thereby curbing the chronic urban drift. Other unquantifiable benefits such as checking of soil erosion, and dam silting, and resisting the spread of the desert would also accrue.