Smallholder agricultural commercialization and adaptation to climate change and variability in semi-arid central Tanzania: a case of Kongwa district in Dodoma region

The study was conducted to investigate the implications of smallholder agricultural commercialization to climate change adaptation in Semi-arid Central Tanzania. Hembahemba and Manyata villages in Kongwa district, Dodoma region were selected for the study. Primary data collection involved the use of key informant interviews, household questionnaires, focus group discussions, and field observations. Secondary data were collected through literature, and documentary review. Temperature and rainfall data from 1970 to 2012 were analysed by simple linear regression performed using Microsoft Excel. Non-numeric data were coded, and analyzed by SPSS. Household Commercialization Index (HCI) was used to analyse levels of agricultural commercialization. The experience of 97% and 50% of the interviewed respondents on rainfall and temperature trends respectively corresponded to the analysis of climatic data from TMA. The analysis indicated an increase of temperature at a rate of 0.01370 C annually for the past 42 years and a decrease of rainfall at a rate of 1.5062 mm annually from 1983 to 2012. However between 1995 and 2012, rainfall decreased more rapidly at a rate of 4.597 mm annually putting agricultural sector into risk. On the other side agricultural commercialization largely influenced mechanization and changes of agricultural practices. Some changes such as abandonment of mixed farming, and timing of rain onset exposed the farmers into risks of climatic shocks while changes such as tillage practices and crop diversification contributed to adaptation. Therefore agricultural diversification taking into account combined climatic and market forces are likely to further enhance adaptation.