Computer-aided energy planning: implementation of the leap-model for Tanzania

Implementation of the LEAP model for Tanzania through the use of optimisation models in combination with a forecasting program is presented. Two models are developed in this thesis. The first one determines the optimum mix of energy resources at minimum cost. The second model seeks the optimum number of end-use biomass devices and hectares of land to be afforested to minimise the woodfuel deficit. The second model is tested using data for Dar es Salaam only. The details of the modelling and the methodology of determining the output of the developed models are given in Chapter two. The linear regression program, prepared in the PASCAL programming language is used to generate linear relationships of the data collected as a function of time in years. A forecasting program, prepared in GAMS, uses linear relationships generated by the linear regression program to project the data collected. The output of the forecasting program is fed into optimisation models whose outputs are entered into LEAP. The LEAP-model is run using optimal and non-optimal inputs (for comparison). The results prove the hypothesis that energy planning with the LEAP model is more effective if the model is complemented by an optimisation model. In further research, it is recommended that developed programs could be linked with each other and then with LEAP to eliminate the inconvenience of manual entry of data into various programs. Also, the research recommends further modelling of the woodfuel deficit sub-system model to match with the energy policies of the government of Tanzania.