Development of a model for optimising the variations on forecasted construction cash flows: the case of building projects in Dar es Salaam – Tanzania
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Date
2018
Authors
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
University of Dar es Salaam
Abstract
The contingency sum is provided as the ceiling amount for absorbing variations that may occur on planned budget during execution of construction projects. However, there have been significant variations on forecasted construction cash flows which exceed the contingency sum provided. This study is therefore aimed to develop a model for optimising the total variations on overall forecasted construction cash flows within the contingency sum provided during execution of building projects in Tanzania. Specifically, this model is used to minimise those variations within the contingency sum provided in building projects. Data were collected through questionnaire from 284 building contractors in Dar es Salaam. In addition, documentary review of historical data from contract documents of 40 recently completed building projects was conducted and supported by interviews to project participants and self-auditing to contract documents. Eight major risk factors were identified, but the leading four risk factors with their overall relative contributions in causing variations are unclarity of clients’ requirements (0.249); errors in project documents (Bills of Quantities) (0.187); consultants’ lack of experience and technical skills (0.131); and poor/incomplete design (0.130). The study concludes that the model of this study can minimise more than 60% of total variations planned to occur in execution of building projects. It is therefore recommended that the model solutions should be used in establishing the proactive risk measures for controlling variations caused by risk factors on forecasted construction cash flows of building projects.
Description
Available in printed form, East Africana Collection, Dr. Wilbert Chagula Library
Keywords
Development of a model, Variations on forecasted, Construction cash flows, Building projects, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
Citation
Malekela, K.N (2018) Development of a model for optimising the variations on forecasted construction cash flows: the case of building projects in Dar es Salaam – Tanzania.Doctoral dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam.