Mathematical modelling of cholera dynamics with some intervention strategies: the case of Tanzania

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Date
2012
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Dar es Salaam
Abstract
A Mathematical model incorporating intervention strategies is formulated and analyzed in order to determine the impact of sanitation, chlorination and public health education on cholera in Tanzania. The consumption of high-risk food, impure water and poor sanitation correlate with low socio-economic status and poverty promote cholera transmission. Common denominators in developing countries, like Tanzania where cholera is an endemic disease include aspects such as insufficient drinking water and sanitation, underemployment, poor education and poor schooling. Both numerical and qualitative analysis of the model are done and the impact of sanitation, chlorination and health education on different epidemiological groups is investigated. Qualitative results show that the model has two equilibria; the disease-free equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable whenever the effective reproduction number is less than unity and the endemic equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable provided that the effective reproduction number is greater than unity. The possibility of backward bifurcation is investigated and it is observed that the model does not exhibit such phenomenon, this is because of poor environmental sanitation and inadequate and sufficiently clean and safe water. Numerical results suggest that sanitation, chlorination and public health efforts in Tanzania can completely eliminate cholera from the population. The study therefore, recommends that more people should use safe water and proper and appropriate sanitary practices in order to reduce Vibrio cholera contamination. In addition, massive awareness campaigns should be conducted across the country to sensitize people on the importance of health hygienic practices so as to reduce the spread of cholera.
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Available in print form
Keywords
Cholera, Mathematical models, Vibrio cholarae, Tanzania
Citation
Jacob, T (2012) Mathematical modelling of cholera dynamics with some intervention strategies: the case of Tanzania, Master dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam. (Available at http://41.86.178.3/internetserver3.1.2/detail.aspx)