Modelling and forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) growth with special focus on tourism in Zanzibar

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dc.contributor.authorMoh’d, Salma Saleh
dc.date.accessioned2019-11-25T12:36:39Z
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-07T15:45:57Z
dc.date.available2019-11-25T12:36:39Z
dc.date.available2020-01-07T15:45:57Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.descriptionAvailable in print form, East Wilbert Africana Collection, Dr. Wilbert Chagula Library, Class mark (THS EAF G155.Z36M63)en_US
dc.description.abstractThe Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of a country’s economic performance. It is the value of all final goods and services produced within the borders of a country in a given year. The economy of Zanzibar is highly dependent on agriculture but in the recent years the contribution of the tourism sector to the country’s GDP has substantially increased. Although it is agreed that development of the tourism industry leads to economic growth, there are very few studies in Zanzibar that address this issue. This study attempts to predict Zanzibar’s GDP growth based on tourist arrivals. Annual data of tourist arrivals and GDP for the period 1991 to 2009 are used in the regression analysis to establish the statistical relationship between the GDP and the tourist arrivals. Then the model is used to predict tourist arrivals, after which we predict the GDP growth using the relationship obtained. Statistical methods were used in the collection, analysis, explanation and presentation of the time series data of tourists’ arrivals. After some analysis, the ARIMA (2, 0, 1) model has been selected as the final model. The study provides a method for prediction and forecasting based on the data, which may be used by both government and business entities. The study has served to shed light on the dynamic relationship between tourism and the GDP in Zanzibar. It is expected that this model will be used by stakeholders in problem solving, decision making and developing policies for the tourism sector in Zanzibar. Furthermore, the results of this study may help to explain the extent to which the tourism sector is contributing to and could enhance poverty reduction in Zanzibar.en_US
dc.identifier.citationMoh’d, S.S(2013)Modelling and forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) growth with special focus on tourism in Zanzibar,Master dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaamen_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/1781
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherUniversity of Dar Es Salaamen_US
dc.subjectTourist tradeen_US
dc.subjectGross domestic productsen_US
dc.subjectEconomic growthen_US
dc.subjectMathematical modelsen_US
dc.subjectZanzibaren_US
dc.titleModelling and forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) growth with special focus on tourism in Zanzibaren_US
dc.typeThesisen_US
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