Climate change and variability impacts on agricultural production in Uganda

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University of Dar Es Salaam
Globally, various climatic studies have estimated a reduction of crop yields due to changes in surface temperature and precipitation. Uganda’s economy and the well being of its populace depend on rainfed agriculture which is susceptible to climate change. Studies that depict the degree of climate change/variability, its impacts and potential adaptation strategies that can be adopted to enhance future crop yields can improve the livelihoods and economy of the country. This study uses statistical methods to establish various climate change and variability indicators across the country, and uses the FAO-AquaCrop model to simulate yields under possible future climate scenarios with and without adaptation strategies. Maize, the most widely grown crop was used for the study. Meteorological, soil and crop data were collected for various districts representing the maize growing ecological zones in the country. Based on this study, temperatures have increased by up to 1°C across much of Uganda since the 1970s, with rates of warming around 0.3°C per decade across the country. High altitude, low rainfall regions experience the highest level of warming, with over 0.5oC/decade in Kasese. Rainfall is variable and does not follow a specific increasing/decreasing trend. For both future climate scenarios, maize yields will reduce in excess of 4% for the fast warming-low rainfall climates but increase on average by 3.5% for slow warming-high rainfall regions, by 2050. Improved soil fertility can improve yields by over 50% while mulching and use of surface water management practices improve yields by single digit percentages.
Available in print form, University of Dar es Salaam at Dr. Wilbert Chagula Library(THS EAF QC981.8.C5U33K54)
Climatic changes, Agriculture, Uganda
Kikoyo, A.D(2013)Climate change and variability impacts on agricultural production in Uganda, Master dissertation, University of Dr es Salaam, Dar es Salaam