Assessing the impact of climate change on stream flow in Kinyasungwe catchment

Over recent decades, the Kinyasungwe river sub basin has experienced unpredictable climatic shift. In particular, drier than average resulted in a decrease of mean annual precipitation for the entire Wami river basin. Aim of this study is to assess climate change impact on stream flow in Kinyasungwe catchment. The effect of climate change was analyzed using rainfall and temperature from five meteorological station with a base line data of 30 years (1980 – 2010). LARS – WG were accepted after monthly and seasonal calibrated and validated, HadCM3 was selected from three GCMs to project climate into two scenario A1 and A1B for the period 2011 – 2045 (2020’s) and 2046 – 2079 (2050’s). The future climate shows there will be a decline of rainfall for both climatic scenario selected as well as increase in temperature within the basin. Hydrological modeling was done by conceptual model (IHACRES – CMD) after Calibrated for the period of 1981 – 1989 and give R2 = 0.59. Annual and seasonal flow shows, decline of stream flow in both 2020’s and 2050’s for all scenario selected A1B and A2. Decreasing flow during WET season and slightly increase during DRY season. On other decreasing of stream flow by 10% 2020 and 7% 2015 might create conflict among water users in the sub basin so clear measure and mitigation must be taken.