Mathematical models for the dynamics of multidrug resistant tuberculosis in Malawi: Assessing the impact of control
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Date
2010
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Dar es Salaam
Abstract
The resurgence of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis in some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa calls for a mathematical study to assess the impact of control strategies on the global effort to effectively control the burden of tuberculosis. Thus, mathemati¬cal models for the dynamics of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis are formulated and analysed in order to establish the impact of treatment, diagnosis and health educa¬tion on multi-drug resistant tuberculosis control in Malawi. The model assumes that exposed individuals develop active tuberculosis due to endogenous reactivation and exogenous re-infection. Treatment is offered to all infected individuals except those latently infected with multi-drug resistant tuberculosis. Both numerical and qual¬itative analyses of the model are done and the impact of treatment, diagnosis and health education rates on the different epidemiological groups is investigated. Qual¬itative results show that the model has two equilibria; the disease-free equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable whenever the effective reproduction number is less than unity and the endemic equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable pro¬vided that the effective reproduction number is greater than unity. Further, when the effective reproduction number is equal to unity, backward bifurcation occurs. Numerical results suggest that at the current level of control strategies in Malawi, the drug sensitive tuberculosis can be completely eliminated from the population which in the process reduces multi-drug resistant tuberculosis since most multi-drug resistant tuberculosis cases arise due to inappropriate treatment. The study there¬fore, recommends that more people should be timely diagnosed and then put on proper tuberculosis treatment in order to reduce multi-drug resistant tuberculosis. In addition, massive awareness campaigns should be conducted across the country to sensitize people on the importance of completing tuberculosis treatment so as to reduce the spread of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis.
Description
Available in print form, East Africana Collection, Dr. Wilbert Chagula Library, Class mark (THS EAF RA664.T7M3M34)
Keywords
Mathematical, Multidrug, Tuberculosis
Citation
Maliyoni, M (2010) Mathematical models for the dynamics of multidrug resistant tuberculosis in Malawi: Assessing the impact of control, Master dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam. Dar es Salaam.