Mathematical modeling of transmission and control strategies of cervical cancer

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Date
2014
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Dar es Salaam
Abstract
Cervical Cancer is the second most leading causes of serious illness and deaths among women around the world, after breast cancer. In this dissertation, a mathematical model of the transmission dynamic of Human Papilloma Viruses/Cervical Cancer Model is formulated and analysed with the aim of understanding its transmission dynamics. The population is divided into seven subclasses namely; susceptible, screened, vaccinated infectives, precancerous, invasive cancer and treated infectives. The impact of control and prevention strategies (treatment, vaccination and screening) in precenting the spread of disease has been determined. Conditions for the clearance or persistence of the Cervical Cancer infection through the stability of the equilibria are derived. We infer the impact of control strategies on the dynamics of the disease through sensitivity analysis of the effective reproduction number, from which the results show that, the combination of treatment, vaccination and screening can eradicate the Cervical Cancer infection if the effective reproduction number can be reduced below unity. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the analytical results and test the effects of certain parameters. The sensitivity analysis identifies the rate of transmission, vaccine protection, treatment rates of the infective, precancerous and invasive cancer, plus vaccination and the waning rate of vaccine as the main factors in facilitating the spread and control parameters of the disease. The results of the study show that the combination of screening, vaccination and treatment programmes targeting women with Cervical Cancer can effectively eliminate the suffering caused by Cervical Cancer from the population if these programmes can reduce the effective reproduction number below unity.
Description
Available in print form, EAF Collection, Dr. Wilbert Chagula Library, (THS EAF RC280.U8N454)
Keywords
Cervix uteri, Cancer, Cervical cancer
Citation
Ngiliule, P (2014) Mathematical modeling of transmission and control strategies of cervical cancer, Masters dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam