Modeling infectiology and optimal control of HCV disease in a community with inflow of infected immigrants
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Date
2016
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of Dar es Salaam
Abstract
In this thesis, a model that describes the dynamics of the spread of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) disease in the presence of infective immigration is developed and analysed. The epidemic threshold and existence of equilibrium are investigated. The model undergoes backward bifurcation so that the condition (basic reproduction number) is less than unity, is necessary but not sufficient for the eradication of HCV in a community with inflow of infective immigrants. Optimal control theory is applied to study the level of effort needed to control the spread of HCV disease using three controls namely; education, health care (i.e. hygiene), immunization (i.e. vaccination), screening and treatment. Results show that in the absence of control measures, infective immigrants have a decisive impact on the dynamics of the transmission of infection. It is further observed that the effectively use of optimal screening of immigrants together with other control strategies has a significant impact in reducing the spread of the disease in the community compared to the case with no control. Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) shows that use of optimal education, health care and immunization is the best cost effective control strategy although it requires 100% application throughout the intervention period. The major conclusion from the study is therefore that this study shows that the perspective of effectively use of optimal screening of immigrants together with education, health care, immunization and treatment should be enforced.
Description
Available in print form, East Africana Collection, Dr. Wilbert Chagula Library, Class mark (THS EAF RC848.H425A46)
Keywords
Hepatitis, Non-A, ,non-B, Mathematical models
Citation
Ainea, N. (2016) Modeling infectiology and optimal control of HCV disease in a community with inflow of infected immigrants, Doctoral dissertation,University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam.