Simulating the impact of climate change on sediment yield using swat model: the case of Kagera river basin

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University of Dar es Salaam
The SWAT model was applied in the Kagera River Basin, to simulate the sediment yield and to investigate the effect of climate change on the sediment yield. The Kagera Basin, 60,000 km2 is among the sub basins in the Nile River Basin. Observed flow and sediment load from Kagera River at Kyaka were used for calibrating the model. Sensitivity analysis results showed that from 27 parameters, only 10 parameters revealed meaningful effects on the flow simulation and 6 parameters for sediment. Calibration was carried out manually and automatic from 1975 to 1979 data and Validation for 1988. The calibration and validation on monthly basis gave satisfactory results with (NSE =0.5, IVF=0.89), (NSE=0.37, IVF=0.79) respectively for flow and (NSE=0.43, IVF=0.55) respectively for sediment loads. The calibrated model was used to simulate the effect of climate change on sediment yield. The future climate change data of IS92a climate scenarios from HadCM3 model was used. The data indicate a significant increasing in both maximum and minimum temperature values range from 1.964 to 3.01 degree centigrade with change in precipitation .The period used for simulation was from 2010–2060 (2050s). The climate variables considered are precipitation and temperature. The simulation of the effect of climate change indicates an overall increase in surface runoff by 11.28% with significant increase in the rate of sediment yield and increase in total runoff by 7.25%. Results reveal that sediment transportation is reduced by 14.62% hence sedimentation. Simulation on adaptation measures to the impacts of climate change is required.
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Hydrologic models, Climatic change, Kagera river basin
Malata, B. C. (2010) Simulating the impact of climate change on sediment yield using swat model: the case of Kagera river basin. Master dissertation, University of Dar es Salaam. Available at