Browsing by Author "lzdori, Fides John"

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    Assessing impacts of climate change on Lake Rukwa-Tanzania.
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2011) lzdori, Fides John
    The effect of climate change to the water level of Lake Rukwa is investigated by using water balance model developed for the period from 1977 to 1982. The annual total surface inflows runoff for the years 1977/78 to 1981/82 was calculated from the water balance using measurements of rainfall, evaporation, and lake storage data. Rainfall data for five stations (Muse, Galula Hydromel, Gua Village, Sumbawanga Agriculture and Mkulwe Mission) were used to find average areal rainfall over the lake by Thiessen's polygon method. Results of the water balance components show that while evaporation contributes 100% of the outflow, rainfall is the major component of the inflows contributing 62 % while surface inflow contributes 38% of the inflow into the lake. The calculated inflow was then compared to catchment rainfall and it was found that it is a linear function of catchment rainfall. Climate change projections obtained from the UNDP climate change country profiles were used to derive climate change scenarios for the Lake Rukwa Basin. Climate projections indicate a general increase in annual temperature by 0.9 'C in the 20305 to a maximum increase of 5 'C by the 2090s. Rainfall change projections are not one directional as temperature. While an annual decrease in rainfall of about 8 mm in 2030s to 11 mm by the 2090s is reported; sods: areas in the Rukwa basin will experience an annual increase of 9mm b the 2030s to a maximum increase of 39 mm by the 2090s. When these climate projections were applied to the Lake Rukwa water balance model, it was found that variations in lake level are more sensitive to change in rainfall.