Browsing by Author "Pantaleo, Innocent Muganyizi"

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    Poverty dynamics in kagera region – 1991-2010
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2016) Pantaleo, Innocent Muganyizi
    This study examines the dynamics of poverty in Kagera Region during 1991-2010 period using the Kagera Health and Demographic Survey panel data. First, the study decomposes the Kagera headcount poverty index into growth, inequality and rural/urban population shift effects using Son (2003) approach. The results show population shifts was pro-poor and growth led to reduction of poverty within the region. These results imply that there is need for pro-poor employment creation strategies in urban areas and increased productivity in rural areas. Second, employing the fixed effects model and dynamic panel data estimators and borrowing from Ravallion (1988) approach, the study examines the dynamics of household’s consumption and vulnerability. The dynamic panel data estimators show that Life Cycle Hypothesis for consumption smoothing does not hold, whereas the Ravallion (1988) approach show that risk to poverty is less for the 1991 poverty line and high for 2010 poverty line. Thus, pro-poor farming approaches and earmarking resources for consumption stabilization interventions are needed. Lastly, the study examines a household’s duration in poverty and factors accounting for falling into or moving out of poverty. The non- parametric and semi-parametric discrete data spell approaches are employed. The non-parametric results show that poverty is transitory, and that male-headed households have a higher likelihood of exiting poverty than female-headed ones. The duration variables have significant positive effect for exiting poverty. In this regard, policy may entail enhancing social networks especially to female-headed households and improving the balance in resource distribution and allocation between sexes
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    Real exchange rate behaviour in Tanzania.
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2004) Pantaleo, Innocent Muganyizi
    In this study the behavior of Tanzania's real exchange rate for the period 1966 to 2001 is examined through investigating the determinants of real exchange rate and its misalignment. The starting period is the year in which the Bank of Tanzania became operational. The study has employed econometric techniques of time series, with exchange rate misalignment analyzed using two approaches, the first one being use of the difference between actual real exchange rate and equilibrium real exchange rate and the second one using exchange rate premium as a proxy of misalignment. The results show that the long run determinants of real exchange rate in Tanzania include debt servicing, openness, terms of trade and reforms. The main hypothesis that periods of major external imbalance, foreign exchange control and fixed exchange rate regime are characterized with exchange rate misalignment which tend to disappear during the period of floating exchange rate regime was not rejected. Hence the conclusion that the period of major external imbalance, foreign exchange control and fixed exchange rate regime in Tanzania was characterized by exchange rate misalignment, which is disappearing during the period under which the economic reforms are being implemented. In addition, the results show that in the absence of other interventions, actual real exchange rate converge very slowly towards the long run equilibrium level.