Browsing by Author "Mukosa, Solomon"

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    A mathematical model for the dynamics of the HIV related lymphomas (HRLs)
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2014) Mukosa, Solomon
    HIV is dramatically changing the demographics of diseases and the resource needs of the entire health care services of many countries in Africa. Malignancies such as the HIV related Lymphomas (HRLs) have an increased risk of developing in Persons Living with HIV (PLWH). In this project, a dynamic compartmental model detailing the coinfection dynamics of HRLs and HIV is formulated. In modelling the dynamics of HRLs, the population is divided into five subclasses i.e Susceptible S(t) who are not yet infected but can be infected by HIV individuals through sexual contacts and develop lymphomas, HIV only infected individuals not yet displaying symptoms of AIDS Ih(t), individuals developed lymphoma only Il(t), those infected with HIV and have since developed lymphoma Ihl(t) and individuals with full blown AIDS A(t). The model is broken into sub-models whose mathematical analysis is given. The co-infection model that takes into account the sub-models is then investigated. The model is fitted to data obtained from the Tygerberg Lymphoma Study Group (TLSG) using the Matlab codes language. Projections will be made to depict the likely trends of HRL cases beyond 2012. This has health care implications on the planning and allocation of resources in many of the sub- Sahara countries in Africa. Sensitivity analysis will be performed to determine which parameters have the most profound effect on the outcome variables. For specific parameter values, the model is found to fit very well to the data that is available.