Browsing by Author "Muhaya, Kagemulo"

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    Mathematical modelling on the effects of passive smoking in the presence of pro and anti-smoking campaigns
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2013) Muhaya, Kagemulo
    In this dissertation, a deterministic compartmental mathematical model was formulated and analysed to investigate the effects of passive smoking in the presence of pro and anti-smoking adverts. In modelling the dynamics of smoking, the population is divided into five subclasses of potential smokers who respond to pro-smoking advert, potential smokers who respond to anti-smoking adverts, light smokers, chain smokers and quitters. The model was analysed for the existence of smoke free and endemic equilibrium points and their stability. It was shown that the smoke free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable when the effective reproduction number is less than unity and unstable when an effective reproduction number is greater than unity. The model analysis shows that pro-smoking and anti-smoking adverts, have substantial effect on increment or eradication of smoking habits. It was noted that anti-smoking adverts reduces the smoking habit while the pro-smoking adverts increases the smoking habits. In order to reduce the spread of smoking habits the efficacy rate of the anti-smoking adverts (f), should be sufficiently large and increased to 1 while pro-smoking adverts should be kept at minimal point. Numerical simulations were carried out to support the analytical results and to determine the parameters influencing the dynamics of the smoking.