Browsing by Author "Mligo, Gerald"

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    Modelling the effects of temperature variation on schistosomiasis transmission dynamics
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2015) Mligo, Gerald
    Schistosomiasis ranks second behind malaria in terms of its social, economic and public health impact in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. In this dissertation, a non-linear mathematical model is formulated to study the effects of temperature variation on schistosomiasis transmission in the population. Mathematical features of the model such as the reproduction number, the equilibria and the stabilities are carried out. The model results revealed that, the disease free equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1 and unstable when R0 > 1. The results also showed that the model exhibits the forward bifurcation. The endemic equilibrium point seems to be locally asymptotically stable for R0 > 1, otherwise it undergoes backward bifurcation. Sensitive indices of parameters in the basic reproduction number R0 are evaluated. The model simulation results show that, there is high infection rate at high temperature and low infection rate at low temperature where the infection rate β(T) is temperature dependent. It is emphasized that the periodic outbreaks of infectious snails to the aquatic environment are followed by epidemic outbreaks in the human population. Generally, it is concluded that an integrated and sustainable approaches are required to control the disease transmission by taking into consideration the seasonal fluctuations of population densities of the intermediate hosts and the pathogens due to temperature variation.