Browsing by Author "Mbogolela, Felix"

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    Modelling the impact of climate changes on schistosomiasis endemic in human
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2016) Mbogolela, Felix
    A nonlinear model for the impact of climate changes on schistomiasis endemic in human is formulated and analysed. Climate changes such as the impact of temperature factor and variation of river water levels on the disease transmission in human are incorporated. The model involves dynamics of human population and their behaviour related to water contact and dynamics of intermediate host snails. The goal is to determine the spread of schistosomiasis disease in human by considering the effects of temperature factor and variation of river water levels. Qualitative analysis is carried out to determine the basic reproduction number. Schistosomiasis basic model shows that the disease free equilibrium (DFE) is lo-cally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number Ro < 1 and unstable if basic reproduction number R0 > 1. Bifurcation analysis and global stability for endemic equilibrium are also carried out to determine the existence of the disease at endemic level. The model exhibited forward bifurcation and in the case of global stability it is found that if basic reproduction number Ro > the endemic equilibrium of the model system is globally asymptotically stable. From the results, it is observed that at a certain range of temperature, thus from 15.6°c to 3Crc the rate of human and snail infection from the disease is high, also on the other hand the results show that the force of infection experienced by river water levels is high when the river water levels is low. Overall results shows that treatments, good sanitation practices and human behavioral changes should be practiced so as to reduce the infection intensity in the population.