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Water Balance Model for Lake Malawi
(University of Dar es Salaam, 2000) Kanyika, George Yogi
Lake Malawi is the most important water resource in Malawi. In the recent years the lake levels have displayed recognizable variations. The historical variations of the lake level have essentially been random in nature and it is envisaged that the future variations will also be random. Results of the water balance model for Lake Malawi are presented here. Preliminary investigation using the simple water balance question do not produce satisfactory results in reproducing the lake levels. The water balance model exlain the rise in 1979 to be due to increase in rainfall over lake. A water model has been developed in this study. The model was calibrated using 33 years of record (1954 to 1987) the water balance components were independently estimated. However with some adoption of data from a previous work by Kidd,(1983). The inflows into the lake were extended from estimated obtained from annual rainfall-runoff relationship. The evaporation component was estimated using the Penman Monteith Potential Evaporation model. The model was verified for 11 years of record, 1988 to 1999. A comparison of observed and reproduced lake levels in both calibration and verification showed fairly good agreement. From the water balance model results, it is observed that the possible major explanation of the extreme lake level rise in 1979 was due the increased in that year.