Browsing by Author "Hugo, Alfred"

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    An Eco-epidemiological Mathematical Model with treatment and disease infection in both prey and predator population
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2011) Hugo, Alfred
    We propose and analyze a deterministic mathematical model with treatment and disease infection in both prey and predator population to study the effect of treatment on infected population that spread the disease. The model describes two classes of infections that a.re infected prey and predator. The susceptible prey is assumed to become infected when come into contact with infected prey while susceptible predator gets infection during the predation time. Sufficient conditions for the local stability of the equilibrium point for the basic Eco-epidemiological model and model with treatment a.re presented and their global stability of co-existence equilibrium point are also qualitatively performed. The Positivity and boundness of the solutions were analysed quantitatively. FurtherĀ­ more, it is shown that disease free equilibrium with the absence of disease is locally asymptotically stable and co-existence equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations of the model are carried out showing the effect of treatment on infected prey and predator and then compared with the figure of the model without treatment and infected predator. Finally, we concluded that the disease can be eradicated through the treatment so as after long period of time we remain with only susceptible prey and predator.
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    Infection dynamics of Newcastle disease in the central zone of Tanzania under optimal control measure
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2017) Hugo, Alfred
    Poultry production in Tanzania has been recognised to play a vital role in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Chickens, in particular, contribute a significant endowment to the gross national economy. Chickens help to improve socioeconomic, survival, growth and development in many rural communities in Tanzania. However, the Newcastle disease (ND) which affects mostly chicken considered as the most threatening disease and destabilizes the poultry production system. This work presents a mathematical dynamics of ND with Holling Type II functional response which was rigorously analyzed using the theory of ordinary differential equation. The model fitting and parameter estimation were evaluated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations for the data from Kongwa, Chamwino, Ikungi, Singida Rural and Mkalama districts in Dodoma and Singida regions. The time-dependent control of ND has been analyzed with three possible control strategies namely: chicken vaccination, human education campaign and treatment of an infected human. The optimal control results of ND show that whenever chicken vaccination strategy is applied either alone or with any other strategy reveals a significant difference in controlling the disease in chicken. Cost-effectiveness analysis was evaluated and found out that the combination of chicken vaccination and human education campaign strategy as most cost-effective. Therefore, the ministry of livestock and fisheries in Tanzania through regional, district, division, ward and village veterinary officers are strongly advised to take extra incentives in ensuring that all chickens are vaccinated properly and timely, and also advised to provide an adequate education for poultry farmers.