Browsing by Author "Francois, Masengo Ilunga"

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    Real- time forecasting on the Mtera-Kidatu reservoir system
    (University of Dar es Salaam, 2000) Francois, Masengo Ilunga
    The Mtera-Kidatu Reservoir system is located in the Rufiji basin, in the central Tanzania. The two reservoirs supply water to hydroelectric plants whose production accounts for about 85% of the power production in the country. It happened that between the years 1991 and 1994 water levels al Mtera Reservoir fell very low, close to the Lowest Regulated Water Level (L.R.W.L.) of 690.5 metres above sea level (m.a.s.l), which adversely affected power generation from the reservoir system. The cause of the failure was pointed out by Ondieki (1999) that it was due to excessive unrecorded spills from Mtera Reservoir during the refilling period (from January to June in 1991 and 1992). Willie operating normally according the operation policy (minimize the spills from both reservoirs and maintain full capacity at the Kidatu Reservoir as well as maintain power generation at the historical (recorded) levels for both reservoirs), failure could not ha' e happened . The Mtera-Kidatu Reservoir system is oC great importance and thus requires an efficient management. This study was carried out to establish efficient operation of the system. Since the inflows to Mtera play a major role as input, a transfer function was proposed to estimate the inflows as opposed to the Baseline (ADD) Model used by Ondieki (1999). The model efficiency was 87%. The transfer function model is, therefore, suitable for estimating inflows to the reservoir as again the ADD Model, which yielded a calibration efficiency of 54.01%. However, the results obtained.