Browsing by Author "Elias, Felix"

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    The effects of male circumcision, condom use and microbicides in preventing HIV/AIDS
    (Unversity of Dar es Salaam, 2010) Elias, Felix
    In this study, we present the sex-structured model to ascertain the full impact of male circumcision, condom use and microbicides if implemented jointly in reducing HIV transmission. First of all, this work presents a compartmental model for the transmission dynamics of HIV with and without circumcision. A useful epidemic threshold parameter is computed for the two submodes. The existence and stability of the system is analyzed for the disease-free and endemic points based on this thresh old parameter. In addition to having a disease-free equilibrium, which is locally asymptotically stable whenever a certain epidemiological threshold is less than unit, the circumcision model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where the disease-free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium when the threshold is less than unit. The implication of this result is that HIV may persist in the population even when the reproduction threshold is less than unit. An epidemic model for male circumcision is extended by a way of incorporating condom use and microbicides. Similarly, the standard qualitative technique is employed to analyze the full model and the result shows that the model has basic properties as similar as those of circumcision model. Using partial data from Tanzania, the qualitative results of the submodels and full model are veriļ¬ed by means of numerical simulations and the results agree with the analytic results.